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☆ Inflation data looks like a move in the right direction, says J.P. Morgan's Michael Feroli
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation data looks like a move in the right direction, says J.P. Morgan's Michael FeroliMichael Feroli, J.P. Morgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the Beige Book and cooling CPI report and what they mean for market outlook.

Persons: Morgan's Michael Feroli Michael Feroli, Morgan Locations: J.P

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with J.P. Morgan's Michael Feroli on Fed's Beige Book
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with J.P. Morgan's Michael Feroli on Fed's Beige BookMichael Feroli, J.P. Morgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the Beige Book and cool CPI report and what they mean for market outlook.

Persons: Morgan's Michael Feroli, Michael Feroli, Morgan Organizations: J.P Locations: J.P

☆ Indicators show bank credit tightening hitting small businesses, says JPM's Michael Feroli
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIndicators show bank credit tightening hitting small businesses, says JPM's Michael FeroliMichael Feroli, JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss conflicting signals coming out of the economy, gradual slowing in the labor market, and rates repricing Fed expectations.

Persons: JPM's Michael Feroli Michael Feroli

LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - World stocks rose to a two-week peak on Monday, with Japan's Nikkei closing at its highest level in 33 years, drawing support from signs that cooling inflation might temper central banks' appetite to further hike rates. U.S. data on Friday, which hinted towards cooling inflation, helped bolster gains in the tech sector and underpinned sentiment in world stocks. MSCI's world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.25% to its highest level in just over two weeks, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index also hit a two-week peak (.STOXX). Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) shed 5% last quarter while much of the developed world rallied. Key U.S. data this week include closely watched surveys on manufacturing and services, job openings and the June payrolls report.

Persons: Seema Shah, Jan von Gerich, May's, Michael Feroli, Brent, Dhara Ranasinghe, Wayne Cole, Karin Strohecker, Amanda Cooper, David Evans, Mark Potter Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Nasdaq, Apple, Frankfurt, Bank of, Key, JPMorgan, Fed, Thomson Locations: Asia, London, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Sydney

☆ Nikkei leads Asia higher, China lags behind
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

China's factory activity slowed in June as the Caixin manufacturing survey showed a dip to 50.5, from 50.9 in May. China's central bank has promised more "forceful" action to support the economy and looks likely to soon get a new boss. Something major is needed given Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) shed 5% last quarter while much of the developed world rallied. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) gained 1.2%, though it was still lagging far behind Japan's market. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were steady ahead of the July 4 holiday, having gained more than 6% in June.

Persons: Tesla, May's, Michael Feroli, wouldn't, Brent, Wayne Cole, Christopher Cushing, Himani Sarkar Organizations: Nikkei, ANZ, Sino, Bank of Japan, FTSE, Nasdaq, BofA, Apple, Microsoft, JPMorgan, Fed, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, Japan, Asia, Pacific, Saudi Arabia, Lincoln

☆ Nikkei leads Asia higher, China data underwhelms
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

China's factory activity slowed in June as the Caixin manufacturing survey showed a dip to 50.5, from 50.9 in May. China's central bank has promised more "forceful" action to support the economy and looks likely to soon get a new boss. Something major is needed given Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) shed 5% last quarter while much of the developed world rallied. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were steady ahead of the July 4 holiday, having gained more than 6% in June. Important U.S. data this week includes closely watched surveys on manufacturing and services, job openings and the June payrolls report.

Persons: Tesla, May's, Powell, Michael Feroli, Brent, Wayne Cole, Christopher Cushing, Himani Organizations: Nikkei, ANZ, Sino, Bank of Japan, FTSE, Nasdaq, BofA, Apple, Microsoft, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, Japan, Asia, Pacific, Saudi Arabia

☆ We could see a rate hike in two weeks: JPMorgan's Michael Feroli
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe could see a rate hike in two weeks: JPMorgan's Michael FeroliMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what we could anticipate from the Fed's meeting and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's Michael Feroli Michael Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan

☆ Jobs report: What to expect from the May data
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

But despite all that, the labor market has kept humming right along. And that’s largely expected to be the case, again, in Friday’s monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Private sector employment increased by 278,000 jobs in May, according to ADP’s monthly National Employment Report, frequently seen as a proxy for the government’s official number. Labor turnover data released Wednesday showed that the US employment market remained tight in April. The government’s May jobs report is scheduled for Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Persons: ” Daniel Zhao, that’s, ” Julia Pollak, “, Pollak, ”, Michael Feroli, Matthew Martin, ” Pollak, it’s Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, “, ”, Commerce Department, CNN, Labor, JPMorgan, Oxford Economics, Challenger, Conference Locations: Minneapolis, April’s

☆ Strong US consumer spending, inflation readings put Fed in tough spot
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Consumer spending jumped 0.8% last month after gaining 0.1% in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, would rise 0.4%. Adjusting for inflation, consumer spending shot up 0.5% after being unchanged in March. Consumer spending is being supported by strong wage gains in a tight labor market. The current pace of consumer spending is, however, unlikely to be sustained as Americans grow weary of inflation.

☆ A debt default would be 'much worse than a government shutdown', says J.P.Morgan's Michael Feroli
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA debt default would be 'much worse than a government shutdown', says J.P.Morgan's Michael FeroliJimmy Pethokoukis, American Enterprise Institute & Michael Feroli, J.P.Morgan chief economist, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss teh ongoing debt ceiling debate, the impending deadline, and what it could all mean for the U.S. economy.

☆ What to expect from the jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Minneapolis CNN —If the latest employment trends continue and economists’ forecasts prove true, Friday’s jobs report could bring back that pre-pandemic feeling. Economists expect the US economy to have added 180,000 jobs in April, according to consensus estimates on Refinitiv. It could also hammer home the fact that the US labor market has indeed cooled down from its red-hot recovery over the past two years. What a rising unemployment rate meansEconomists are expecting the unemployment rate to tick up to 3.6% from 3.5%, according to Refinitiv. Mixed signalsPayroll processor ADP’s monthly look at private-sector employment activity, released two days before the BLS’ employment report, is sometimes looked at as a preview of what to expect from the federal data.

New data for March showed the ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed job seekers fell for the fourth consecutive month and hit the lowest level since October 2021. At roughly 1.64 to 1 the number remains far above the levels around 1.2 seen before the pandemic. In recent months the relationship between job openings and unemployment has kept that prospect alive. The number of estimated job openings has fallen from a peak of 12 million in March of 2022 to 9.59 million in March this year. The openings rate, expressed as a percentage of filled and available positions, has fallen from a high of 7.4 last spring to 5.8 in March.

☆ Strong US consumer spending seen driving economy in first quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP growth likely increased at a 2.0% annualized rate last quarter after rising at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter. Estimates ranged from a growth rate of 0.4% to a 3.3% pace. DOWNSIDE RISKSome institutions cut their GDP growth estimates, with Wells Fargo slashing its forecast by a full percentage point. Still, consumer spending is expected to have grown at a pace faster than the pedestrian 1.0% rate logged in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, is expected to be driven by demand for services.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with JPM's Michael Feroli on recession risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with JPM's Michael Feroli on recession risksJPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss disinflation without recession, the potential for a resurgence of stress in the banking system, and Fed policy plans for 2023.

☆ Still expect economy to hit mild recession later in 2023, says JPM's Michael Feroli
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStill expect economy to hit mild recession later in 2023, says JPM's Michael FeroliJPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss disinflation without recession, the potential for a resurgence of stress in the banking system, and Fed policy plans for 2023.

☆ US economy still churning out jobs at brisk clip; wage pressures subsiding
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Labor market tightness is drawing more people into the workforce, with 480,000 entrants last month, which could help to further restrain wage growth. The unemployment rate for Blacks dropped to an all-time low of 5.0%. Economists expect the labor market to loosen up considerably starting in the second quarter as companies respond more to slowing demand caused by the higher borrowing costs. Details of the household survey from which the unemployment rate is derived were upbeat. The employment-to-population ratio, viewed as a measure of an economy's ability to create employment, increased to 60.4% from 60.2% in the prior month.

☆ Borrowing from key Fed lending facilities cools a bit in latest week
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Total lending to the three main programs aimed at bolstering bank liquidity stood at $323.3 billion as of Wednesday, down from $332.7 billion on March 29. At the start of March, before banking sector problems emerged, total Fed liquidity lending to banks was just shy of $5 billion. In its weekly report, the Fed said banks sought $69.7 billion from its discount window lending facility as of Wednesday, down from $88.2 billion on March 29. Lending via the Bank Term Funding Program stood at $79 billion as of Wednesday, versus $64.4 billion the prior Wednesday. Credit tied to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s work to wind down failed banks stood at $174.6 billion on Wednesday, down from $180.1 billion on March 29.

Governments around the globe are stepping in with extraordinary rescue plans to keep the banking system stable. US regulators orchestrated a $30 billion cash infusion into First Republic Bank, a regional bank with a similar profile to the failed Silicon Valley Bank. The stock fell another 5% in morning trade, as rumors of a takeover -- either by UBS or the government -- continued to swirl. But the Federal Reserve loaned out $150 billion to banks last week, including $12 billion in its new emergency lending program. We're nowhere close to what banks were borrowing during the global financial crisis -- but that's still a lot of money.

☆ What caused the global banking crisis this week and will it lead to a recession?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Mark Thompson | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Silicon Valley Bank’s customers were frantically pulling their money from the California-based lender before US regulators intervened to take control. Thursday, March 16 — First Republic Bank was teetering on the brink as customers withdrew their deposits. In guaranteeing all deposits at Silicon Valley Bank and Republic Bank, the US Federal Reserve is on the hook for $140 billion. Then there’s the $54 billion the Swiss National Bank offered Credit Suisse in the form of an emergency loan. The $318 billion the Fed has loaned in total to the financial system is about half what was extended during the global financial crisis.

☆ Yellen says U.S. inflation fight 'not a straight line' after price rise data
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-25 | by ( David Lawder | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BENGALURU, Feb 25 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Reuters on Saturday that new U.S. data showing inflation jumped unexpectedly in January signals that the fight against inflation "is not a straight line" and more work is needed. The strongest U.S. consumer spending data in nearly two years on Friday showed that the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), jumped unexpectedly in January, calling into question whether the Fed remains behind in its inflation fight. Revisions to prior data showed that previous disinflation was milder than previously reported, and that data added to financial market fears that the Federal Reserve could continue raising interest rates into summer. "I think this report showed that it's not going to be a straight line - disinflation is not a straight line," Yellen said, adding that inflation "remains a problem." "It’s one read, but core inflation still remains at a level that's above what's consistent with the Fed’s objective.

Some estimates have suggested the unemployment rate, currently at more than a five-decade low of 3.4%, may have to approach 7% for inflation to fall on a reasonable timetable. But a series of rapid rate hikes last year, which pushed the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero to the current 4.50%-4.75% range, has so far been relatively cost-free. Those projections have inflation dropping to 2.1% by the end of 2025, with the economy growing throughout and the unemployment rate rising only to around 4.6%. By contrast, they said "the cost of lowering inflation to the Fed's 2% target by 2025 will likely be associated with at least a mild recession." Perhaps too reliant on the tame inflation of recent decades, the Fed made a "significant error" by not raising interest rates "preemptively" when inflation began accelerating in 2021, the group concluded.

☆ Fed can't tame inflation without 'significantly' more hikes that will cause a recession, paper says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve building is seen before the Federal Reserve board is expected to signal plans to raise interest rates in March as it focuses on fighting inflation in Washington, January 26, 2022. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to be able to bring down inflation without having to raise interest rates considerably higher, causing a recession, according to a research paper released Friday. The Fed has implemented a series of interest rate hikes in an effort to tame inflation that had been at its highest level in some 41 years. That change implemented "average inflation targeting," allowing inflation to run hotter than normal in the interest of a more inclusive employment recovery. Fed Governor Philip Jefferson released a reply to the report, saying that the current situation differs from previous inflation episodes.

☆ GDP data will probably soften as we move into spring, says JPMorgan's Michael Feroli
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGDP data will probably soften as we move into spring, says JPMorgan's Michael FeroliMichael Feroli, JPMorgan chief U.S. economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to break down rate hikes, his GDP forecast and jobless claims numbers.

"We didn't expect it to be this strong," Powell said, but it "shows why we think this will be a process that takes quite a bit of time." It has just confounded all sorts of attempts to predict," Powell said, noting that wage growth has slowed even with continued strong job gains. Officials raised the target interest rate a quarter point to a range between 4.5% and 4.75% at that session, and said in the latest policy statement that "ongoing increases" would be needed. 1 2 3 4 5As of December, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation was increasing at a 5% annual rate, still more than double the Fed's target. While Powell said he expected "significant declines in inflation" this year, the U.S. economy was still "in the beginning of getting that down."

☆ We're not on the edge of a recession, says JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist Mike Feroli
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're not on the edge of a recession, says JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist Mike FeroliMichael Feroli, JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss growing rates of consumer spending in Q4, labor cost pressures running stronger than pricing power and what he sees as the likelihood of a recession.

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